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Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi: BananaCore prediction

Clay · Best of 3 ATP · Rome Masters · Best of 3 · Italy
Finished
A. de Minaur
AU·ATP 8
26 yrs · 1.83 m · Right
Alex de Minaur
8 May 2026 · 10:00
1:2
64
67
46
1.4 3.2
Matteo Arnaldi
M. Arnaldi
IT·ATP 106
24 yrs · 1.85 m · Right
1.4 3.2
Best Tip
A. de Minaur 1.4
5
Winner
A. de Minaur 1.4
5
Total Games
U24.5 1.57
4
Total Games
19
Sets
2 – 0
Projected set score
63
64
A. de Minaur Projected match stats M. Arnaldi
2Aces2
2Double Faults4
52%1st serve in %55.2%
69.3%Points won on 1st serve59.4%
62.5%Points won on 2nd serve51.7%
3Break points converted1
44.1%Points won on return34%
68Points won overall55
Fan vote · Who takes it?
85%A. de Minaur
M. Arnaldi15%
10,734 votes
2
A. de Minaur
leads in stats
M. Arnaldi
leads in stats
5
On serve
53.6%1st serve in %58.2%
3.9Aces3.4
3.2Double Faults4.4
Rallies and power
0.9Dominance ratio1
1.4Break points converted3.3
5.3Service breaks8.1
73.6Points won overall81.9
A. de Minaur 40%
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
4–6
Win–loss
10–14
Sets won–lost
2
Straight-set W
M. Arnaldi 60%
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
L
6–4
Win–loss
15–12
Sets won–lost
2
Straight-set W
Last 10 matches, side by side
4Wins6
6Losses4
0Upset wins2
6Upset losses2
2Straight-set wins2
4Straight-set losses1
10Sets taken15
14Sets dropped12
Alex de Minaur
1 – 0
Head-to-head record
Matteo Arnaldi
Most recent meetings
17 Jan 24 Hard
AM 3–0 MA
Last matches · A. de Minaur WWLWL
W vsK. Majchrzak 20 Sep 2 0 1.24 4.05
W vsM. Kasnikowski 19 Sep 2 0 1.07 8.40
L vsB. Van de Zandschulp 03 Sep 0 3 1.36 3.50
W vsA. Guerrieri 02 Sep 3 0 1.04 13.00
L vsA. Fils 19 Aug 0 2 2.52 1.64
W vsA. Fery 17 Aug 2 0 1.23 4.70
W vsQ. Halys 15 Aug 2 1 1.39 3.10
L vsC. Norrie 06 Aug 1 2 1.59 2.70
W vsJ. Duckworth 04 Aug 2 0 1.12 7.00
L vsB. Nakashima 31 Jul 0 2 1.62 2.45
Last matches · M. Arnaldi LLLWL
L vsJ. Duckworth 31 Aug 1 3 1.60 2.47
L vsM. Landaluce 15 Aug 1 2 2.15 1.75
L vsT. Griekspoor 07 Aug 1 2 2.65 1.50
W vsF. Marozsán 05 Aug 2 1 2.25 1.69
L vsD. Džumhur 16 Jul 1 2 1.46 2.75
W vsF. Gomez 15 Jul 2 1 1.28 3.85
L vsQ. Halys 30 Jun 1 3 2.21 1.75
L vsG. Hussey 23 Jun 0 2 1.28 3.80
W vsT. Samuel 21 Jun 2 1 2.02 1.81
W vsA. Gray 20 Jun 2 0 1.45 3.05