ATP · Hard
ATP Tokyo 2026: Predictions
This page follows ATP Tokyo match by match. Each prediction weighs recent form, head-to-head meetings and results on the surface, and the best tips here have landed more than 58.6% of the time.
35
Picks
5
Still to play
58.6%
Hit rate
Names to follow
TF
ATP
T. Fritz
RJ
ATP
R. Jódar
CA
ATP
C. Alcaraz
FT
ATP
F. Tiafoe
AF
ATP
A. Fils
BN
ATP
B. Nakashima
CR
ATP
C. Ruud
TP
ATP
T. Paul
VV
ATP
V. Vacherot
LD
ATP
L. Darderi
JL
ATP
J. Lehečka
AB
ATP
A. Blockx
AD
ATP
A. Davidovich
TE
ATP
T. Etcheverry
AT
ATP
A. Tabilo
UH
ATP
U. Humbert
AM
ATP
A. Michelsen
AF
ATP
A. Fery
MA
ATP
M. Arnaldi
ZB
ATP
Z. Bergs
LA
ATP
L. Van Assche
MB
ATP
M. Berrettini
ST
ATP
S. Tsitsipas
DS
ATP
D. Shapovalov
AV
ATP
A. Vallejo
JM
ATP
J. Munar
JF
ATP
J. Faria
KM
ATP
K. Majchrzak
CU
ATP
C. Ugo
AK
ATP
A. Kovačević
ZS
ATP
Z. Svajda
RH
ATP
R. Hijikata
MG
ATP
M. Giron
LS
ATP
L. Sonego
SS
ATP
S. Shimabukuro
MJ
ATP
M. Damm Jr
KJ
ATP
K. Jacquet
SM
ATP
S. Mochizuki
RS
ATP
R. Sakamoto
TD
ATP
T. Daniel
YN
ATP
Y. Nishioka
KN
ATP
K. Nishikori
ATP
T. Fritz
RJ
ATP
R. Jódar
CA
ATP
C. Alcaraz
FT
ATP
F. Tiafoe
AF
ATP
A. Fils
BN
ATP
B. Nakashima
CR
ATP
C. Ruud
TP
ATP
T. Paul
VV
ATP
V. Vacherot
LD
ATP
L. Darderi
JL
ATP
J. Lehečka
AB
ATP
A. Blockx
AD
ATP
A. Davidovich
TE
ATP
T. Etcheverry
AT
ATP
A. Tabilo
UH
ATP
U. Humbert
AM
ATP
A. Michelsen
AF
ATP
A. Fery
MA
ATP
M. Arnaldi
ZB
ATP
Z. Bergs
LA
ATP
L. Van Assche
MB
ATP
M. Berrettini
ST
ATP
S. Tsitsipas
DS
ATP
D. Shapovalov
AV
ATP
A. Vallejo
JM
ATP
J. Munar
JF
ATP
J. Faria
KM
ATP
K. Majchrzak
CU
ATP
C. Ugo
AK
ATP
A. Kovačević
ZS
ATP
Z. Svajda
RH
ATP
R. Hijikata
MG
ATP
M. Giron
LS
ATP
L. Sonego
SS
ATP
S. Shimabukuro
MJ
ATP
M. Damm Jr
KJ
ATP
K. Jacquet
SM
ATP
S. Mochizuki
RS
ATP
R. Sakamoto
TD
ATP
T. Daniel
YN
ATP
Y. Nishioka
KN
ATP
K. Nishikori
The tournament in numbers
58.6%
BananaCore hit rate
55%
Won in straight sets
45%
Went to a decider
28%
Matches with a tiebreak
2.4
Average sets per match
Round by round
Round of 16 8
Tomorrow
ATP - Tokyo, Japan: C. Alcaraz against M. Arnaldi, 03:00, Upcoming. Winner odds: C. Alcaraz 1.04, M. Arnaldi 12. Trust score for this match: 10 of 10. Get Full Access to see this prediction. 03:00
Upcoming
0300
C. Alcaraz
(1) 
M. Arnaldi
–
▾1.04
▴12
10
03:00
Upcoming
0300
D. Shapovalov
A. Tabilo
–
▴1.65
▴2.35
4.1
03:00
Upcoming
0300
M. Berrettini
A. Vallejo
(Q) –
▴1.62
▾2.4
1.8
03:00
Upcoming
0300
U. Humbert
J. Lehečka
–
▴2.7
▾1.53
5.2
Today
ATP - Tokyo, Japan: J. Munar against J. Faria, 03:00, Finished. Winner odds: J. Munar 1.61, J. Faria 2.4. Predicted winner: J. Munar, priced at 1.61, trust score 4.1 of 10. Graded a hit. Predicted scoreline: 6-4, 7-6. Our best tip: U28.5, priced at 1.34, trust score 4.3 of 10. Graded a hit. 03:00
Finished
0300
J. Munar
(Q) 
J. Faria
(LL) 2
0
▾1.61
▴2.4
1
▾1.61
6476
U28.5
▴1.34
4.3
04:25
Finished
0425
V. Vacherot
(8) 
S. Tsitsipas
(Q) 2
1
▾2.5
▴1.63
1
▾2.5
7664
U30.5
1.29
4.3
S1
S1
K. Jacquet
L. Darderi
03
02
2.16
1.7
5.5
10:00
Upcoming
1000
A. Fils
(Q) 
F. Tiafoe
(2) –
▾1.45
▴3.1
4.9
3rd Round 15
Yesterday
ATP - Tokyo, Japan: L. Darderi against C. Ruud, 03:00, Finished. Winner odds: L. Darderi 2.87, C. Ruud 1.5. Predicted winner: C. Ruud, priced at 1.5, trust score 3.7 of 10. Graded a miss. Predicted scoreline: 4-6, 3-6. Our best tip: C. Ruud, priced at 1.5, trust score 3.7 of 10. Graded a miss. 03:00
Finished
0300
L. Darderi
C. Ruud
2
0
▾2.87
▴1.5
2
▴1.5
4636
2
▴1.5
3.7
03:00
Finished
0300
T. Fritz
(3)
J. Munar
1
2
▴1.3
▾3.55
1
▴1.3
6364
1
▴1.3
2.1
03:05
Finished
0305
J. Faria
A. Fery
2
1
▴1.86
▴2.02
2
▴2.02
634636
U28.5
1.44
5.4
03:10
Finished
0310
B. Nakashima
U. Humbert
0
2
▴1.45
▾2.85
1
▴1.45
466362
1
▴1.45
4.5
04:35
Finished
0435
T. Etcheverry
S. Tsitsipas
1
2
▾3.5
▴1.33
1
▾3.5
6476
U30.5
▾1.25
5.1
06:00
Finished
0600
J. Lehečka
Z. Bergs
2
1
▴1.37
▾3.25
2
▾3.25
633646
U28.5
▴1.32
1.5
06:15
Finished
0615
K. Nishikori
F. Tiafoe
0
2
▾5
▴1.2
2
▴1.2
3646
2
▴1.2
10
07:00
Finished
0700
D. Shapovalov
S. Shimabukuro
2
0
▴1.35
▾3.65
1
▴1.35
466362
1
▴1.35
6.1
08:40
Finished
0840
C. Alcaraz
A. Michelsen
2
1
▴1.17
▾5.4
1
▴1.17
6364
1
▴1.17
5.3
10:25
Finished
1025
A. Davidovich
M. Berrettini
1
2
▾1.66
▴2.28
2
▴2.28
643646
U30.5
▾1.28
3.9
11:30
Finished
1130
A. Vallejo
R. Jódar
(4) 2
0
▾4.5
▴1.23
2
▴1.23
4636
2
▴1.23
10
30 Sep 2026
ATP - Tokyo, Japan: V. Vacherot against A. Blockx, 03:00, Finished. Winner odds: V. Vacherot 2.18, A. Blockx 1.71. Predicted winner: V. Vacherot, priced at 2.18, trust score 1.0 of 10. Graded a hit. Predicted scoreline: 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. Our best tip: U30.5, priced at 1.3, trust score 4.7 of 10. Graded a hit. 03:00
Finished
0300
V. Vacherot
A. Blockx
2
0
▾2.18
▴1.71
1
▾2.18
366364
U30.5
1.3
4.7
05:30
Finished
0530
A. Tabilo
T. Paul
2
0
▾3.2
▴1.36
2
▴1.36
633646
2
▴1.36
6.0
08:00
Finished
0800
A. Fils
L. Van Assche
2
0
▾1.16
▴5.8
1
▾1.16
366362
1
▾1.16
7.7
09:50
Finished
0950
M. Arnaldi
R. Sakamoto
2
1
▴2.18
▾1.7
2
▾1.7
643626
U29.5
▾1.29
4.9
Qualifying 12
29 Sep 2026
ATP - Tokyo, Japan, Qualifying: S. Tsitsipas against R. Hijikata, 03:00, Finished. Winner odds: S. Tsitsipas 1.28, R. Hijikata 3.65. Predicted winner: S. Tsitsipas, priced at 1.28, trust score 2.1 of 10. Graded a hit. Predicted scoreline: 7-6, 6-4. Our best tip: S. Tsitsipas, priced at 1.28, trust score 2.1 of 10. Graded a hit. 03:00
Finished
0300
S. Tsitsipas
R. Hijikata
2
0
▾1.28
▴3.65
1
▾1.28
7664
1
▾1.28
2.1
04:00
Finished
0400
J. Munar
A. Kovačević
2
0
▾1.59
▴2.32
1
▾1.59
7664
O20.5
1.41
3.6
04:30
Finished
0430
A. Fils
K. Majchrzak
2
1
▾1.2
▴4.3
1
▾1.2
6364
1
▾1.2
10
06:20
Finished
0620
A. Vallejo
J. Faria
2
1
▾2.44
▴1.54
1
▾2.44
633664
O20.5
▾1.54
1.0
28 Sep 2026
ATP - Tokyo, Japan, Qualifying: R. Hijikata against C. Ugo, 03:00, Finished. Winner odds: R. Hijikata 1.37, C. Ugo 3.15. Predicted winner: R. Hijikata, priced at 1.37, trust score 4.5 of 10. Graded a hit. Predicted scoreline: 6-3, 6-4. Our best tip: R. Hijikata, priced at 1.37, trust score 4.5 of 10. Graded a hit. 03:00
Finished
0300
R. Hijikata
C. Ugo
2
0
▴1.37
▾3.15
1
▴1.37
6364
1
▴1.37
4.5
03:00
Finished
0300
S. Tsitsipas
Y. Nishioka
2
0
▴1.07
▾7.5
1
▴1.07
6061
2:0
▴1.29
3.8
04:30
Finished
0430
Z. Svajda
A. Kovačević
1
2
▴1.55
▾2.4
1
▴1.55
6476
1
▴1.55
4.8
04:45
Finished
0445
A. Fils
M. Damm Jr
2
1
▴1.19
▾4.6
1
▴1.19
6463
1
▴1.19
10
06:55
Finished
0655
J. Munar
M. Giron
2
1
▴1.55
▾2.55
1
▴1.55
466362
1
▴1.55
3.9
07:50
Finished
0750
S. Mochizuki
J. Faria
0
2
▾2.7
▴1.45
2
▴1.45
4636
2
▴1.45
5.6
09:20
Finished
0920
A. Vallejo
T. Daniel
2
0
▴2.2
▾1.78
1
▴2.2
6476
O20.5
▴1.55
1.0
09:45
Finished
0945
L. Sonego
K. Majchrzak
0
2
2.23
▴1.62
2
▴1.62
466336
O20.5
▴1.45
1.0
In the title hunt
1ESC. Alcaraz67%
2USF. Tiafoe16%
3FRA. Fils8%
4MCV. Vacherot4%
5ITL. Darderi2%
6CZJ. Lehečka1%
Hard
Every forecast here leans hardest on how players do on hard courts.
42
Main draw
Best of three sets
Format
ATP Tokyo 2026 in numbers
Purse: 2,046,340 USD. From 29 settled matches at this event, our best tips are at 58%. Predictions are already out for 5 matches still to come.
C. Alcaraz, world No. 3, headed a field of 42 players from 18 countries. Defending champion: Carlos Alcaraz.
No match went longer than A. Vallejo vs J. Faria, at 34 games. Straight-set wins and deciding sets were roughly level: 16 and 13 out of 29 finished matches.
Common questions
Is ATP Tokyo a clay, grass or hard-court event?
+
Surface at ATP Tokyo: Hard. Since conditions change how points are won, the predictions here weigh each player's results on that surface above the overall record.
What is our hit rate at ATP Tokyo?
+
58.6% of our best tips at ATP Tokyo have come in, over 29 settled matches. The number updates after every result, so it moves as the event goes on.
What number of ATP Tokyo matches carry a prediction?
+
35 at ATP Tokyo so far, each with a winner pick, a predicted set score, a games line and the serve and break-point figures behind them.
What are the dates of ATP Tokyo?
+
Our records place ATP Tokyo between 28 Sep 2026 and 3 Oct 2026. Dates move a little from one year to the next, and predictions for the new edition appear as soon as its draw is published.
18+ · Forecasts made by AI, for information only · BananaPoint neither takes nor places bets